The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) announced the introduction of two new risk calculators to inform physician-patient decision-making in thoracic surgery.
Engineered using contemporary data from the STS General Thoracic Surgery Database, the interactive tools may provide surgeons with accurate, preoperative risk estimations for the outcomes of esophagectomy for cancer and pulmonary resection for lung cancer.
The mobile-friendly risk calculators were designed to allow surgeons and multidisciplinary medical providers to estimate a patient’s real-time individualized risk on the basis of specific factors such as tumor characteristics, comorbidities, and procedures performed. As patient factors are added by the user, the risk estimates of morbidity and mortality can be dynamically calculated along with 95% confidence intervals. The goal of developing the risk calculators was to provide thoracic surgeons with simple-to-use, intuitive resources to support preoperative decision-making and improve the quality of care.
Key Updates
The new Esophagectomy for Cancer Risk Calculator is powered by enhanced STS esophagectomy for cancer risk models using data from 18,503 patients across 254 hospitals between January 2015 and December 2022. This cohort is four times larger than that used in previous models, resulting in more precise estimations and broader applicability. The risk calculator’s key updates include the incorporation of new risk factors like preoperative cancer staging and body surface area.
Similarly, the Pulmonary Resection for Lung Cancer Risk Calculator is based on updated STS risk models using data from 140,927 patients at 337 hospitals between 2015 and 2022. This model reflects modern thoracic surgical trends and techniques, including the growing prevalence of minimally invasive and robot-assisted procedures.
Advancing Personalized Care
“The esophagectomy for cancer risk calculator represents a significant advancement in personalized care for [patients undergoing] thoracic surgery. Informed by a more diverse patient cohort, and using preoperative variables, the tool provides surgeons and patients with a comprehensive and informed view of predicted outcomes,” emphasized Jennifer C. Romano, MD, MS, President of the STS. "The new risk calculator for pulmonary resection of lung cancer offers superior performance and applicability, especially for high-risk patients. It serves as a valuable tool for both clinical decision-making and improving patient outcomes,” she highlighted.
The new thoracic surgery risk calculators are the next in a series of enhancements to the STS National Database—one of the largest and most comprehensive clinical registries with nearly 10 million cardiothoracic procedures performed by over 4,300 surgeons—and were designed to meet the day-to-day needs of surgeons, data managers, and cardiothoracic care teams. Additional thoracic surgery risk calculators focused on long-term outcomes are planned for release in 2025.
To access the STS’ suite of risk calculators for adult cardiac and thoracic surgery, visit sts.org.
