Researchers have developed a nomogram prediction model for the development of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer, according to study results published in Menopause, the journal of The Menopause Society.
A number of significant independent risk factors for DVT were identified and used in the construction of the model, which showed good predictive performance and clinical utility in its risk predictions.
Study Methods and Results
Researchers from the Wenzhou Central Hospital, Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China, retrospectively analyzed 429 patients with epithelial ovarian cancer. These patients were randomly separated in a 7:3 ratio into a modeling group (n = 300) and a validation group (n = 129) for the prediction model.
Of these patients, 116 developed DVT (27.04%), including 81 in the modeling group (27%).
“The high incidence rate highlights the importance of establishing a risk prediction model for prevention in clinical practice,” the study authors, led by Chenxiang Pan, BM, from the Department of Gynaecology Oncology, stressed in their report.
Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, the researchers found that age, body mass index, hypertriglyceridemia, tumor staging, tumor grade, CA125 levels, platelet count, and fibrinogen levels were all independent risk factors for developing DVT (P < .05). These factors and their assigned scores were used to construct the nomogram model.
The nomogram’s performance was evaluated in both the modeling and validation groups. The area under the curve for the modeling group was 0.893 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.845–0.940) and was 0.973 (95% CI = 0.950–0.995) for the validation group.
The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model had good predictive ability, and the clinical decision curve analysis showed that the clinical value was high for probabilities between 0.08 and 0.97.
“Ovarian cancer is often diagnosed at a late stage and can be extremely aggressive, requiring extensive surgery and long courses of chemotherapy. Although these treatments reduce cancer burden, they are associated with significant risks. Identifying strategies and protocols to minimize or prevent treatment-related complications is essential to optimizing patient outcomes and quality of life,” stated Monica Christmas, MD, Associate Medical Director for The Menopause Society.
Disclosure: For full disclosures of the study authors, visit menopause.org.
